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Generalissimo Tea Boy
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6,031 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
solemnly!......I have probably mispelled that ... bloody wop!:D

my likely scenario is:
a) someone pays my vara handsomely and I find a GS 1150 with low milage
b) I win the lottery and I buy the new Honda crosswhatever-its-called thing......yes I like it and I am not ashamed and if I had the money I would go for a yam supertenere' as well.......nothing wrong in wishing right....?
I've given up on the lottery. Premium bonds for me. At least I get my money back if I don't win.
 

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I've given up on the lottery. Premium bonds for me. At least I get my money back if I don't win.
Rather off topic but this comment is incorrect. That's because your stake in PBs is not the amount you hold in them but the interest that you have surrendered. It is that interest, which holders give up, that forms the prize fund. Consequently your stake is just as lost in PBs as it is in the lottery.

This is clear if you imagine a sum of money in a savings account paying interest of say 2% a year which you use to buy a ticket for every UK lottery, 104 draws per year, so £104. That would require £5,200 in the account. This is now directly comparable with holding £5,200 of PBs. In both cases the capital is retained and you gamble with the interest. Now you can see that the idea that you don't lose your money in PBs is false. It's a popular opinion but a wrong one. It annoys me that the government is quite happy to permit this view to prevail in the interests of pulling in punters.

When you compare them correctly as above, the lottery is actually a much better gamble because the odds against winning the big money are several times better than winning the top prize in PBs. Further, the top prize in the lottery can be over £1m whereas in PBs it is fixed at that figure.

The conclusion is that if you are going to gamble on these two games at all, it should be only on the lottery. But there is a condition which is that you don't spend much more on the lottery than the interest that you lose on the relevant amount of capital that you would have put into PBs. So if for example if you were going to buy say £2,000 of PBs, you should instead put it in the bank and buy lottery tickets with the interest. If you receive interest of 2%, that gives you £40 per year or 40 lottery tickets. Those 40 tickets every year give you a several times better chance of winning big money than £2,000 in PBs, though still very small of course.
 

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Generalissimo Tea Boy
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Discussion Starter #3
Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

Rather off topic but this comment is incorrect. That's because your stake in PBs is not the amount you hold in them but the interest that you have surrendered. It is that interest, which holders give up, that forms the prize fund. Consequently your stake is just as lost in PBs as it is in the lottery.

This is clear if you imagine a sum of money in a savings account paying interest of say 2% a year which you use to buy a ticket for every UK lottery, 104 draws per year, so £104. That would require £5,200 in the account. This is now directly comparable with holding £5,200 of PBs. In both cases the capital is retained and you gamble with the interest. Now you can see that the idea that you don't lose your money in PBs is false. It's a popular opinion but a wrong one. It annoys me that the government is quite happy to permit this view to prevail in the interests of pulling in punters.

I won't bore people with the math unless anyone's really interested, but when you compare them correctly as above, the lottery is actually a much better gamble because the odds against winning the big money are several times better than winning the top prize in PBs. Further, the top prize in the lottery can be over £1m whereas in PBs it is fixed at that figure.
I knew how they worked, just the fact that the syndicate I was in for the lottery paid out money for years with the odd tenner coming our way and nothing to show for it at the end. In the end, even the tenner prizes stopped.

At least with the premium bonds when the syndicate folded and restarted, as it does every few years, I was able to sell what I had accumulated and pay off my overdraft. The prizes may not be all that in comparison, but as I say, at least some money comes back, even if it's not worth what it was a few years ago.
 

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yet another Dave
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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

im with YEN, how many people break even on the lottery? what are the chances of getting your money back let alone winning a profit? at least with the bonds you get your stake back. in the works syndicate if we got £52 back at christmas(never happened, most was £12) it would be a miracle. you would be better off putting a quid a week away in a jar then "winning" £50 for a night in the pub.
 

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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

im with YEN, how many people break even on the lottery? what are the chances of getting your money back let alone winning a profit? at least with the bonds you get your stake back. in the works syndicate if we got £52 back at christmas(never happened, most was £12) it would be a miracle. you would be better off putting a quid a week away in a jar then "winning" £50 for a night in the pub.
Dave, you don't get your stake back in PBs. It's is a common view but entirely wrong because your stake is the interest lost, as I showed above.

Also, the chances of the top win are way better on the lottery. Not my opinion, it's just a fact that can be calculated from the published odds on both schemes.

Don't forget that all gambling is designed for the players overall to lose and the promoter to win. It's a business and the odds are against the players. Consequently there can never be any expectation of making a profit or even getting your money back, that is impossible. If that were the case, the promoter could not make a profit.
 

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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

I knew how they worked, just the fact that the syndicate I was in for the lottery paid out money for years with the odd tenner coming our way and nothing to show for it at the end. In the end, even the tenner prizes stopped.

At least with the premium bonds when the syndicate folded and restarted, as it does every few years, I was able to sell what I had accumulated and pay off my overdraft. The prizes may not be all that in comparison, but as I say, at least some money comes back, even if it's not worth what it was a few years ago.
Yen, personal experience is irrelevant and emotional. The only way to consider gambling objectively and be able to compare alternative methods of it is to look at the odds and the fact is that PBs offer vastly inferior odds to the lottery.

This guff about getting your PB stake back is an illusion promoted by the government. In fact all you are doing is lending them money at zero interest. Other forms of govt. lending like National Savings actually pay you interest but PBs don't. So if you withdraw your PBs, all you are doing is getting your loan back. You have lost the stake which is the interest you never received.
 

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yet another Dave
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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

yes im lending the goverment money at zero percent, but thats better than GIVING it to camelot for nothing. thats the historic statistics of my wallet, i couldnt care less about the rest of the country.
 

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Fine, upstanding member
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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

I'm with YEN, how many people break even on the lottery? what are the chances of getting your money back let alone winning a profit?
I read years ago that if you lived in Norwich you were eleven times more likely to be hit by a bus when going to buy a lottery ticket than winning the lottery... :shock:

On the other hand, most countries have lotteries, they do a lot of good and no-one is forced to play them. What prevents me is the knowledge that there is absolutely no less chance than 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming up than any other sequence of numbers. No-one would believe you could win with those numbers, but they are no less likely than any others! :D
 

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yet another Dave
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i dont understand whats wrong with a straight six numbers and a rollover, and thats it? works for the rest of the world but we have to have so many different games its very confusing. there was a rollover this week and it was only £7m, i say "only", of course that would be nice but a while ago it wouldve been £7m a week and a rollover would be £20m odd...
my cynical side says its a cunning ploy to get the vulnerable and desperate to spend more, my mrs works in the post office and she says there are several idiots who cash their green giros or empty their benefit accounts every week and spend the lot on scratchcards. if i worked there id dob them in to the benefits office- what are they living on if they blow all their giro? worth investigating......for their own good
 

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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

Yen, personal experience is irrelevant and emotional. The only way to consider gambling objectively and be able to compare alternative methods of it is to look at the odds and the fact is that PBs offer vastly inferior odds to the lottery.

This guff about getting your PB stake back is an illusion promoted by the government. In fact all you are doing is lending them money at zero interest. Other forms of govt. lending like National Savings actually pay you interest but PBs don't. So if you withdraw your PBs, all you are doing is getting your loan back. You have lost the stake which is the interest you never received.
Can't help but think that you are talking bull....

Phil
 

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Craigypops
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Re: Dear Varararararadero owners

What prevents me is the knowledge that there is absolutely no less chance than 1,2,3,4,5,6 coming up than any other sequence of numbers. No-one would believe you could win with those numbers, but they are no less likely than any others! :D
I have done know research for this so i could be proved completely wrong by you Phil, you are a clever fella after all.

I think you are wrong, i think the chances of 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 coming up in lottery is much less than random numbers such as 5,8,10,25,30 and 43 for example.

My own reasoning is simple (could be proved wrong mind) and that is if you pick 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 then because all the numbers are low in the range of 1-49 then the chances of each number out of the 6 being low is surely less than it being from any other, the same would apply if all your numbers were grouped in any range.

Like i say, iv'e no evidence or statistic to back this up as i can't be arsed trawling t`interweb for it as it's boring, i'm sure though someone will :D



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Fine, upstanding member
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Nope. That would only be true if 'lowness' was a quality of a number.

The numbers are genuinely random as when each one is selected there is no greater or lesser chance of it coming out of that washing-machine thing than any other.

You would accept that 1 or 45 have an equal chance of being the first number.

You would also accept that 2 or 34 have an equal chance of being the second number.

And that 3 or 16 have an equal chance of being the third.

Whether 3 is the third number is completely unrelated to whether 1 and 2 have already been drawn. Think about how that would happen. What would be the mechanism to prevent a ball marked with a 3 from dropping into the chute? There is none. This is psychology: it is us as conscious beings attributing consciousness to inanimate objects.

The ONLY significance that should influence your choice is that because so many people use dates to choose their numbers, if you win with numbers above 31 you have a greater likelihood of being the only winner. That does not however mean that those numbers are more likely to come up. :sign6:
 

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Fine, upstanding member
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So the question arises, does the knowledge that you have no greater chance of winning with random numbers than with 1 to 6 make you less likely to play the lottery?! :)
 

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Wing Commander
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So the question arises, does the knowledge that you have no greater chance of winning with random numbers than with 1 to 6 make you less likely to play the lottery?! :)
If you do 12345, and the numbers come up, you will only win a small share of the jackpot as they are very popular.

You are likely to win most (share your jackpot with fewer people) if you use numbers above 31, because most people play a memorable date, so 31 is the highest number they use.
 

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Craigypops
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The Angry Pasty Muncher
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My shift in my department at work do a lottery syndicate about 12 guys we've paid out far more than we've ever won and i have thought about pulling out as it's a waste of time. However i know that the week i pull out is th week my numbers will come up so i haven't yet
 

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Craigypops
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However i know that the week i pull out is th week my numbers will come up so i haven't yet
This is exactly what they are counting on.

It's a myth, the fact that you stop playing that week has absolutely no bearing on the probability of the syndicate winning. It's like saying `oh as soon as i walk from the bus stop the bus will come` and `as soon as i go in the bath the doorbell rings or the phone goes`. It's simply the fact that you remember those occasions so they seem more prominent than they actually are. How many times have you gone in the bath and the door or phone does not ring? You don't remember that because it's uneventful, yet the one time it does happen it's like it happens all the time.

Having said that, if you do pull out they are bound to win it :D:D:D



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